The release of this national turnout estimate is an ideal occasion to reiterate and reflect on some of the factors that made the 2018 election cycle different, and conducive to a remarkable rise in youth political participation: It’s more than double the national youth turnout (calculated using the same method) from the 2014 midterms, when we estimate that only 13% of eligible youth cast a ballot-itself a much lower turnout rate than the 20% figure initially calculated through different methodology. The 28.2% national turnout rate is a more precise and reliable estimate that further confirms the increased youth participation in last November’s midterms. This new estimate, based on voter file data aggregated by Catalist, comes close to our initial 31% estimate, which was based on exit poll data and calculated the day after the election. Our analyses found that, in every single state, young people’s turnout rate increased compared to 2014.īased on the data from those 42 states (which represent 94% of the American youth population) we estimate that, nationwide, 28.2% of young citizens (ages 18-29) voted in the 2018 midterm elections. We recently released estimates of 2018 midterm youth voter turnout in all 42 states for which youth voting data are available in the voter files.
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